The Sweet Spot | Vol. 1 · Issue 019 · October 26th, 2026

The Timing Will Feel Wrong

Sometimes progress is happening long before the results appear.

🌿 The Sweet Spot · Vol. 1 · Issue 019 · October 26, 2026

Pivot With Purpose · Career Strategy · Macro Clarity · Myrtus

THIS WEEK IN THE SWEET SPOT

A while back, I recorded an episode of Core Sample called The Timing Will Feel Wrong. It came after a marathon that did not go the way I had planned because the timing was off. At mile 26, I had to decide what story I was going to tell myself. Was I a bad runner? Or had I simply run a race where the timing wasn't right? There is a difference.

I have been thinking about that distinction quite a bit lately, especially as we move into the final two months of 2026. Sometimes you do the work, put in the hours, complete the training, send the applications, have the conversations and keep showing up. Yet the result you expected doesn't arrive. It is easy to look at all of that and conclude that something isn't working but consider compounding interest.

In the beginning, the growth can look remarkably unimpressive. You make contributions, earn a return and then do it again bu over time, those returns begin generating returns of their own. I think habits work much the same way.

·       The book you read today may not produce anything useful until six months from now.

·       The certification you are studying for may not lead to a new job immediately.

·       The conversation you have this week may introduce you to an opportunity next spring.

Not every effort produces a return, of course. Sometimes we need to change direction but we should be careful about mistaking an invisible result for an absence of progress and that is what I want to explore this week.

Sometimes the timing is off and that doesn't mean you are.

THIS WEEK'S COMPASS

Don't confuse a delayed result with a wasted effort.

Timing matters, but so does preparation. Some opportunities appear before you feel ready. Others show up long after you expect them and some never arrive in the form you originally imagined.

Keep learning, keep paying attention, keep building capabilities that can travel with you. The work you are doing today may belong to a future you cannot quite see yet.

SECTION 01

The Part of Compounding Nobody Wants to Talk About

We love the idea of compounding, and we talk about it with investments, retirement accounts and wealth creation. But we rarely celebrate the early stages. Why? Because the early stages can be boring and it so difficult to be patient.

You make a small investment. Nothing particularly exciting happens. You make another one. Still nothing dramatic. Meanwhile, somebody else appears to be making extraordinary progress.

Habits can feel exactly like that.

Consider someone who decides to spend 25 minutes every morning learning about a new industry. The first week may produce little more than unfamiliar terminology. By the end of the first month, they may understand the major companies, basic economics and some of the language used by people working in that sector. Two months later, they may be able to have an informed conversation with someone who works there.

That conversation might lead somewhere. It might not but the person having it is no longer the person who started learning eight weeks earlier. The habit has started changing what they are capable of doing. That is the real value of compounding. Not just the immediate return, but what repeated effort makes possible later. Of course, compounding habits aren't identical to compound interest. Skills need practice, feedback and adjustment. Repeating something ineffective for a year doesn't automatically make it valuable however, consistent, deliberate work has an interesting way of giving you options you didn't have before and options matter enormously in a changing economy.

A Career Is Not a Straight Line

We also need to stop treating careers as though they should follow a perfectly timed schedule. As an example: graduate, get the job, receive the promotion, make the next move, repeat and real life rarely works that neatly and stop comparing yourself to others

Things change: industries expand and contract, technologies change what employers need, businesses restructure, funding gets delayed and entire occupations evolve.

You can be doing everything you reasonably should and still encounter a difficult employment market. That doesn't mean the market is imaginary or that positive thinking will create a job where none exists. It means your strategy may need to include more than applying for the same role at the same companies. Sometimes the useful question isn't, "Why haven't I arrived?"

It is, "What am I building that will make me more prepared when the next opportunity appears?"

SECTION 02

The Signal From Sturnella

The market moves on its own schedule and our career strategy needs to understand that.

This past week gave us two interesting examples of timing. One came from commodities. The other came from the labor market.

SIGNAL 01 · COMMODITIES DON'T MOVE IN STRAIGHT LINES

Gold and silver had another difficult week. For the week ending October 23, gold fell approximately 4%, moving below $4,000 an ounce, while silver also experienced significant selling pressure. Higher oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and expectations for restrictive monetary policy all contributed to the pressure on precious metals. For anyone watching commodity markets, it was an uncomfortable reminder that even a strong longer-term investment thesis can encounter severe short-term setbacks but here is where timing becomes interesting. A decline in the price of gold does not mean every mine suddenly stops operating. It does not mean companies no longer need geologists, engineers, cybersecurity professionals, environmental specialists or supply-chain expertise. It can, however, affect financing decisions, capital budgets, exploration plans and hiring timelines.

A business can still have a legitimate long-term need while delaying the decision to spend money addressing it and a job seeker can be looking in the right industry at the wrong point in its investment cycle.

The lesson: Follow more than the commodity price. Watch project financing, permitting, capital expenditure, construction milestones and company announcements. Those signals can help you understand where future work may be developing.

SIGNAL 02 · BARCLAYS AND THE CHANGING VALUE OF WORK

On October 22, Barclays announced plans to reduce its global workforce by approximately 5,000 positions during 2026, roughly 5% of its employees.

About 1,000 positions had already been eliminated, with the remaining 4,000 expected to follow by year-end. Around 60% of the reductions involve support functions, including developer roles, as the bank uses technology and artificial intelligence to increase efficiency. Barclays is targeting more than £1.1 billion in gross efficiency savings in 2027. There are real people behind those numbers. People with mortgages, families, career plans and years of professional experience. We shouldn't minimize the consequences by suggesting that everyone can simply learn AI and find another job tomorrow but we should pay attention to what the announcement tells us.

The bank isn't necessarily eliminating the need for technology, software or financial expertise. It is changing how some of that work gets done, how many people are needed to do it and where the organization expects to create value. That creates a difficult question for professionals. If technology makes part of your work faster or less expensive, which parts of your experience become more important? Perhaps it is the ability to understand business requirements, evaluate risk, exercise professional judgment, work across functions or supervise increasingly automated processes.

Some roles will shrink. Others may change substantially. Some new opportunities may emerge, but not necessarily in the same locations or on the same timeline.

The lesson: Don't build your entire professional identity around a task. Think about the judgment, knowledge and transferable capabilities behind the task. Those are often what allow you to move into a different role when the market changes.

SIGNAL 03 · DEFENSE HIRING: FOLLOW THE BACKLOG BEFORE THE JOB POSTING

While Barclays is eliminating approximately 5,000 positions, the defense industrial base is telling a different story. On October 14, Lockheed Martin announced plans to create 6,000 jobs across the United States, including 2,000 in Texas, as it expands advanced munitions manufacturing. The announcement included a $300 million investment in its Grand Prairie, Texas, operation.

Then came last week's earnings.

On October 20, Northrop Grumman reported a record backlog approaching $110 billion, supported by approximately $16 billion in quarterly net awards and continued demand across defense programs. That same day, RTX reported a $340 billion total backlog, including $164 billion in defense, as demand for missile systems, air defense and aerospace products remained strong.

On October 22, Lockheed Martin reported its own record backlog of $292 billion, including $52.5 billion associated with a multiyear PAC-3 missile interceptor production award.

Now think about what those numbers mean beyond the stock market. Someone has to manufacture these systems. Someone has to source the materials, qualify the suppliers, build the facilities, manage production schedules, protect sensitive information, oversee contracts and maintain the technology. Not every dollar in a backlog becomes a new job and it may take years for some of that demand to translate into employment but that is precisely the point about timing.

The contract can arrive before the factory expansion and he factory expansion can arrive before the hiring announcement and the hiring announcement can arrive before the right opportunity appears for you.

For someone whose career is being disrupted by automation or restructuring, this is worth paying attention to. Your next opportunity may not have the same job title or exist in the same industry as your last one.

A technology professional from banking may understand systems, risk and controls that are relevant to defense manufacturing. A project manager may discover opportunities in production or supply-chain coordination. Someone with procurement, finance or compliance experience may find that those capabilities transfer into a very different operating environment. That doesn't mean making the transition will be easy or immediate. Defense positions can require specialized knowledge, security clearances and experience that takes time to develop but it does suggest where to begin looking.

The lesson: Don't wait for the job posting to tell you where the market is going. Follow contract awards, backlogs, capital expenditures and factory expansions. Then investigate the capabilities those investments will eventually require. Sometimes the opportunity is compounding long before the job appears.

SECTION 03

The 5-Pomodoro Year-End Compound

You have approximately two months left in 2026. What could you build with them?

I know that the end of October can feel like the beginning of the end of the year. People start talking about the holidays, unfinished goals and everything that hasn't been accomplished but there is still time to make meaningful progress.

Not necessarily to complete a massive transformation and certainly not to squeeze an entire year's worth of work into eight weeks but enough time to build a habit, finish something important or develop a useful foundation for 2027.

This week, we're going to use five Pomodoros, each lasting 25 minutes.

POMODORO 01 · CHOOSE WHAT YOU WANT TO COMPOUND

Start with one question:

What would make the biggest difference in my life if I worked on it consistently between now and December 31?

Maybe it is learning a skill, preparing for a certification, improving your health, rebuilding your résumé, exploring another industry, writing or getting your finances organized.

Choose one priority, not ten.

POMODORO 02 · BREAK IT INTO REPEATABLE ACTIONS

Take that larger goal and make it small enough to repeat.

Instead of "Become proficient in AI," try using an AI tool to solve one real problem three times a week.

Instead of "Find a new job," try researching two employers, making one thoughtful professional connection and tailoring one application each week.

Instead of "Get in shape," establish a realistic movement habit you can maintain.

The smaller action is not a retreat from the bigger goal.

It is how you begin.

POMODORO 03 · MAKE YOUR STARTING POINT VISIBLE

Write down where you are today.

What do you know? What can you do? What is unfinished? What makes the goal difficult?

Your starting point matters because progress can be hard to recognize without something to compare it to.

You may not see a new job or promotion in December but you could see eight weeks of improved skills, a completed project or a much clearer understanding of the next direction you want to pursue.

POMODORO 04 · CREATE A WEEKLY REVIEW

Choose a day to spend 25 minutes evaluating your progress.

Ask yourself:

Consistency matters. So does the willingness to change your approach when the evidence suggests you should.

POMODORO 05 · PREPARE FOR THE OPPORTUNITY

This is the part people often overlook.

What would happen if an opportunity appeared tomorrow?

Could you explain your skills clearly? Is your résumé reasonably current? Can you describe how your experience transfers into another field? Do you have a project or example demonstrating what you've learned?

Spend this final Pomodoro making one part of your preparation tangible.

You may not control when the opportunity arrives.

But you have some control over what you can bring to it.

SECTION 04

AI That Helps

Use AI to make the next eight weeks count.

AI can be useful here, especially when your goals are vague or you have trouble seeing how small actions fit into a bigger picture.

Start with the following prompt:

AI PROMPT · BUILD MY EIGHT-WEEK PLAN

"I'm approaching the final two months of 2026. My primary goal is [insert goal]. I have [number] hours each week available. Help me create a realistic eight-week plan based on small, repeatable actions. Include weekly milestones, one measurable indicator of progress and a short review I can complete each Friday. Do not assume every week will go perfectly."

Then ask:

AI PROMPT · SHOW ME THE COMPOUNDING EFFECT

"Based on this eight-week plan, show me what consistent effort could realistically produce after two weeks, four weeks and eight weeks. Separate outcomes I can control from outcomes that depend on outside decisions, such as hiring, promotions or market conditions."

And finally, particularly for anyone considering a career change:

AI PROMPT · FIND MY TRANSFERABLE VALUE

"My professional background is [background]. I am interested in [industry or direction]. Help me identify five capabilities I already have that could be useful in this field. Explain where each capability might be relevant, what additional knowledge I would need and how I could demonstrate it through a small project over the next eight weeks."

You can also ask AI to help you keep a simple weekly progress log, identify patterns in your work and recommend adjustments.

But don't allow the planning to replace the activity.

A beautiful eight-week schedule is not the same thing as eight weeks of effort.

AI can help you organize the work.

You still need to do it.

SECTION 05

Recharge

🍂 THE DARE: GO FIND SOMETHING THAT DESERVES A SECOND CHANCE

This week, I want you to visit a thrift store, resale shop or secondhand market in your neighborhood not necessarily to buy anything. Just look around.

You will find things that somebody decided they no longer needed. Furniture that went out of style. Clothing that doesn't fit somebody's current life. Dishes, books, artwork and objects that once had a very different purpose.

Some of those things are genuinely worn out, others are simply waiting for someone who sees their value differently. A wooden chair might need a little sanding and a new finish. A glass jar could become a vase. An old picture frame might hold something entirely new and sometimes the object doesn't need to change at all.

The person who appreciates it just hasn't found it yet.

There is an interesting relationship between time and value. Trends change ,demand changes, materials become more desirable. A design that seemed dated ten years ago may suddenly feel interesting again. Not everything becomes valuable just because we wait, of course.

Sometimes we need to repair it, adapt it, rethink its purpose or simply recognize that it belongs somewhere else. That is what I want you to consider this week.

As you walk around, find one item and imagine three different possibilities for it:

And then think about your own skills. Is there something you know how to do that no longer seems particularly valued in your current role? Could that same experience have a very different purpose in another industry?

A skill can be overlooked in one market and useful in another and sometimes the timing changes, sometimes the setting changes, sometimes we are simply learning to see value differently. Enjoy the wandering. You don't need to turn this outing into another productivity assignment. Maybe you'll find something wonderful for a few dollars. Maybe you'll just come home with a different perspective. Either is a perfectly good outcome.

YOUR PRACTICE

One Small Assignment

01 · Stop measuring everything by the finish line.

Identify one area where you have made progress but haven't yet seen the outcome you want.

02 · Choose one habit to compound.

Something small enough to repeat between now and the end of December.

03 · Look for the signal behind the headline.

Read about one company reducing jobs and another company investing or hiring. What capabilities are becoming more important?

04 · Use AI to build an eight-week plan.

Keep it realistic and allow room for life to happen.

05 · Visit a secondhand store.

Find one item that makes you reconsider how usefulness and value can change.

06 · Give yourself credit for showing up.

Not every week will be your best week. That doesn't make the effort meaningless.

I keep coming back to that marathon back at the beginning of the year, I didn’t feel good the day of the race so the splits weren't what I wanted. The time wasn't what I had trained for but the training still happened, it just wasn’t my day. Those miles didn't disappear because on the race day I was feeling sick.  I had built endurance, discipline and experience that I could carry into the next race.

Careers can be like that. You may spend months learning something before anyone asks you to use it and you may work diligently toward a position that never opens. You may even discover that the destination you originally wanted isn't the one you want anymore. I actually love when that happens, it show the ability to be agile and grow and sometimes all of that preparation turns out to be useful in a place you never anticipated.

We have about two months left in this year. That is enough time to start something. Enough time to improve something. Enough time to build some momentum. It may not be enough time for every result you want to appear and that is okay too.

The timing may feel wrong, keep paying attention to what you are becoming along the way.

🌿 THE SWEET SPOT

Read the signal · Find your position · Move with purpose

Myrtus

Career insights for people who want to pivot with purpose.

Episode 2 The Timing Will Feel Wrong

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, accounting, career-placement or cybersecurity advice. Market and employment information is time-sensitive and may change after publication.